Mathematical methods of analysis and forecast of earthquake aftershocks: the need to change the paradigm

Analysis and forecast of aftershocks of large earthquakes in the world practice is currently based exclusively on stochastic models of aftershock process. This makes it possible to use statistical methods of analysis, and also to apply the ”scenario” approach in forecasts by repeatedly generating random sequences of aftershocks and counting the frequency of repetition of the events of interest. Studies on the Russian Science Foundation project ”Development of information system for automatic seismic hazard assessment after large earthquakes based on geophysical monitoring” in 2016-2018 showed however that the effectiveness of such approaches has significant limitations. In this paper I give a critical review of statistical methods for the analysis and forecast of aftershocks, an interpretation of the effectiveness limits of forecasts using standard approaches, provide the rationale for the need to change the paradigm. As one of the search directions, the application of Discrete Mathematical Analysis (DMA) methods developed by Academician A.D. Gvishiani and his scientific school. An obvious advantage of this approach is demonstrated by the example of a simple algorithm for identification of aftershocks using fuzzy comparisons.

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